Thursday, February 13, 2014

Moving Long Feb 13 2014

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Please make sure you take time to read my other entry here.

With the close of markets on Wednesday, February 12th, my medium-termed TSP timer has transitioned to LONG status.

I am moving TENTATIVELY (with care) into the markets in my TSP account with the following allocations:


I'm not too optimistic about this signal, but then again, my crystal ball is as good as yours.  I follow my timers, as they are better than my intuition.

The historical performance of this timer is simply okay.  Not stellar, but better than buy and hold by a long shot:


Market exposure is roughly 50% for all equity positions, so historically, being in the market 50% of the time has produced the gains you see above since 8/29/2008.

My high concentration in G-Fund is because my LONG TERM TIMER is in CASH.  This may change in the next few days, or it may not.  Since we have a restriction in the TSP world of 2 transfers per month, today's change will burn any re-balance hopes until March 1st.  C'est la vie.

As always, do your own diligence, and take ownership for your actions.  I am not responsible for any decisions that you make with your own accounts.

Regards,

pgd

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