Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Moving Long on 10/15/2016

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Whipsaw?

I don't know.  It doesn't really matter in the big picture.

With the close of markets on 10/14 my timer system is telling me to get back into the market.  Hence, here I go:

Conservative:

F-Fund:  23%
C-Fund:  11%
I-Fund: 34%
S-Fund:  32%

Aggressive:

C-Fund:  15%
I-Fund:  45%
S-Fund:  40%

I'm going to use the Aggressive numbers, which you can see do not use the F-Fund.

Note that this will be the 2nd transfer this month so the only thing left is a move to G-Fund if conditions warrant.  I've loaded my change into TSP.GOV and since it's prior to noon EDT on Tuesday, tonight's close will be the numbers that are used in the allocation.

Regards,

Paul

Monday, October 7, 2013

Moving to Cash on October 8, 2013

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All,

Effective with the close of markets on Monday, October 8th, my master timer is indicating that we should move to cash.  I am moving 100% to the G-Fund, effective on Tuesday October 8th.

I will not know what this latest signal resulted in with respect to gains but they are modest at best.  As of tonight, since the entry signal on September 11th (enter next business day), the account is up as follows:

C-Fund:  +1.4%
S-Fund:  +1.4%
I-Fund:  +4.3%

Every little bit helps.

Due to the rolling nature of the 12-month reporting statistics at the TSP.GOV site, performance ended down about -0.5% for the month:


The differences in gain versus the drop in reported account value are partially because we've been weathering the storm overall fairly well, but as I said, I won't know the final values until close of business tomorrow.  If we have another down day on Tuesday we may break even for the series of trades, or even worse (but obviously, not THAT much worse).

Not every trade always works out to our benefit -- the key here is to live to fight another day.

Regards,

Paul