December 7 Weekend Update

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Although the fiscal curb/cliff is keeping us locked in a range, it appears that we're on track as far as our allocations are concerned.

The following is a snapshot of allocations vs. balances for my wife's TSP account:

The chart on the right shows the allocations as of our latest signal, and the chart on the left shows what has actually happened since the last signal.

Bottom line, the I-Fund is dead-on in terms of overall percentage of allocation, F-Fund has been slipping, as I would expect in an appreciating market (albeit, weakly appreciating), and the C-Fund and S-Fund have been growing a bit more than my algorithm projected.  Nevertheless, I'm fine with the present allocations and will not make any changes at the present time.

Unless I get a signal to the contrary (always possible), I will leave these allocations until the end of the month.

Regards,

pgd

Allocation Change Effective Monday, December 3

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Effective with the close of markets on Friday, November 30th, my GGT TSP model has signaled a transition.  Note that NOT ALL FUNDS have signaled a move, so this one is suspect and failure is possible.

My new allocations are:

Aggressive Portfolio

F-Fund:  24%
C-Fund:  14%
I-Fund:  42%
S-Fund:  20%

Conservative Portfolio


G-Fund:  56%
F-Fund:  24%
S-Fund:  20%

I am following the Aggressive Portfolio.

The two funds under the Aggressive Portfolio that did not indicate transition are C-Fund and I-Fund.  They are close to transitioning, but no cigar.  Hence, if I were to follow the conservative portfolio and invest in these when/if they transitioned in December I would use the 2x chances we get to invest in a given month, and if we move to cash (we always seem to do this around the 14th of December), we would miss any potential Santa Clause rally.  I am choosing not to do this.

These changes will be in place by the close of business on 12/3 if I make the change request prior to noon EDT.



Since 11/25/08, which is when this model started, the following statistics have been generated:

As always, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd