Effective with the close of markets on Friday, November 2nd, my GGT model that I apply to the Thrift Savings Plan has transitioned to CASH for the equity markets and a limited position in the F-Fund.
If the dollar strengthens, as I expect it will, I would expect the F-Fund to continue to appreciate (up +0.1% over the last 30 days). Correspondingly, the aggressive portfolio will see a position in the F-Fund and the rest of the monies will be in cash.
For the conservative portfolio, everything is in cash (100% G-Fund).
Allocations are as follows:
Conservative: 100% G-Fund
Aggressive: 39% F-Fund, 61% G-Fund
I do note that there is not a significant change of money flow into AGG, which is the proxy for the F-Fund (they both track the same index). I would like to see prices of AGG remain low while there is "stealth" buying, and this is NOT the case right now:
From www.effectivevolume.com:
The top chart shows that average money flow has been OUT (institutionals are net sellers, not buyers), but the bottom price chart shows that we are at the bottom of a local range so there is a potential to move upward. I would like to see, in the top chart, that total effective volume be above the 20-day moving average, and more importantly, that the slope of the 20d MA be positive (it is presently negative).
Metrics through November 2nd, 2012, based on TSP closing data started on 11/25/08, and using the rules of the TSP are as follows:
The performance numbers will be slighting different, as the table above assumes 25%-25%-25%-25% allocation in each fund, and I actually allocate using momentum over the last month.
Make your changes by noon Monday, November 5th and they will be applicable the evening of Monday, November 5th.
I am moving 100% to cash (G-Fund).
Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not. Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.
Regards,
pgd
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