I-Fund Confirms CASH, but We Are Not In This Fund, So No Worries ...

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I run two independent models for the GGT-TSP portfolio.  One of them is an adaptive timer that uses the daily change in the funds to help determine what to do the next day, and another is based purely on moving averages, specifically moving average crossings and slopes.

With the close of 5/19, the I-Fund has confirmed using both methods that you should not be in the market in this fund.  The I-Fund is in CASH.

There is no question, the C-Fund, which tracks the S&P500, and the S-Fund, which tracks the market ex-S&P500, are both experiencing tremendous pressure to the downside.  It's important to note that neither the C-Fund nor the S-Fund are signalling a move to CASH.  What is important with these two is that

1. the slopes, which indicate $/day gain, are still positive.  On a 65-day basis, the S&P500 is in an uptrend, 
2. the 5d and 65d moving averages are still bullish, e.g., the 5d > 65. These are in a long-term uptrend.

What is problematic is that both of these funds are within a whisker of moving to CASH.  A whisker.

What is further problematic is that we only have one more transfer to accomplish for the month (we are allowed 2 transfers per month), and we have 98% in the S&P500 fund, 2% in the ex-S&P500, and 1% in the   2-5 year bond fund.

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Here is my plan for going forward: stay the course in the C-Fund, S-Fund, and F-Fund.  No changes.

This could certainly change with Friday's close, Monday's, or Tuesday's.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine.

Relax folks.  Yes, we're down -1.1% since our entry.  It may go down more, it may go up.  If you're still working and contributing to your TSP, then you are accumulating shares a bit cheaper than if you were in cash.  This is good, if we believe that in the future the markets will go up.  I believe that they will.  If you are retired, then you certainly can go to cash and nobody would fault you.  Your risk tolerance decides your course from here.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd