Confirmed Signal to Move to Cash

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In the event you did not follow me to cash last month, this should be a wake-up call for you.

Effective with the close of markets on Thursday, February 21st, my TSP timer system has confirmed a move to cash across the board in all equity accounts, with only the F-Fund remaining invested.

The following table shows the day-by-day equity values of equal-balanced investing (25% in each of the F-, C-, S-, and I-Funds).  A value above 1.0 is a positive gain, a value below is a loss:

The table shows that the F-Fund has lost about 0.6% of the equity value from the entry point in early December, while the C-, S-, and I-Funds have gained 6.7%, 10.1%, and 5.6% respectively.  Note the maximum values in these accounts were recently hit and we're down ~ -2% in the C-Fund, ~2.6% in the S-Fund, and ~ -2.2% in the I-Fund.

I would protect your gains and move everything to the G-Fund.  We may continue higher but my internal analysis shows we are slowing dramatically and most likely need a full reset of the markets before re-entry and gains are possible.  I am already in the G-Fund, having moved there in January, so for me this dialog is moot.

If you make your changes effective today before noon EDT the monies will move tonight.

Regards,

pgd