Signal change for Thursday, April 26th

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With the close of markets on Wednesday, April 25th, my TSP models have signaled a transition from cash to invested.

NOTE:  This is not investment advice.  You are responsible for your own actions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence and please take ownership for your actions.

In the conservative portfolio, the model is suggesting the following allocations:

F-Fund:  38%
C-Fund:  30%
I-Fund:  10%
S-Fund:  22%

Substituting the G-Fund for the F-Fund is also a safe and prudent action.

In the ggressive portfolio (longer than 10 years before needing the monies), the model is suggesting the following:

C-Fund:  49%
I-Fund:  17%
S-Fund:  34%

Changes made before noon will be effective at the close.

I intend to transition to fully invested using the aggressive portfolio.

For you folks who like statistics, I've updated the model to be consistent with my other models and have the following table:

The four TSP funds are listed across the top.  This is a table which uses the actual closing prices of the TSP funds, and the model accounts for transfers that are made the following night AFTER a signal.

Of importance is simply that we have a "good" number of trades in each fund and the statistics get us in the ball park.

In general, the I-Fund, which is an international fund, has experienced the worse loosing trade.  Note that the average losing trade is the worse with this model.  Certainly not bad, but simply the more volatile of all the other funds.

The F-Fund is the weakest performer, not in terms of equity, but in terms of metrics.  The t-test/SQN value of 1.60 is below minimum of 1.7 and suggests that the model is not in sync for the bond fund.  This is probably true, because the underlying engine is equity-based, not bonds.  Timing bonds with equity movements doesn't always work out in our favor.  Hence, a strategy here is to presently substitute the G-Fund for F-Fund and remove all bond risk.

Regards,

pgd