VXF / S-Fund Signals Long, I-Fund/EFA and C-Fund/SPY still in CASH

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This will be rather brief, as we are in cash.

C-Fund / SPY

Overall, the C-Fund / SPY has individually been signalling cash since 11/12 and at the present moment, is maintaining that stance on the daily charts.  The present level of the C-Fund is $14.3578 / share, and with the SPY at $118.84 / share, the ratio between the two is about 8.2770.  GGT is indicating that we possibly could move back long again if the SPY moves above $120.96, so this would be a C-Fund price of about $14.62.  Hence, watch for closings above that level, but note too that this is a projection into the future, which needs to be re-done on the date of the crossing to determine validity.

S-Fund / VXF

The S-Fund /VXF signal has moved back long, as of 11/18, but I missed it.  The signal was tested again on 11/23, and presently remains long although I'm still sitting in cash.  I'm not convinced that this isn't a sucker rally for the VXF but I have to trust the signals, hence I'll throw my hat into the ring and move long as far as the VXF is concerned.  Had we moved on the signal date, the effective date would have been the close of 11/19, and the VXF price then was $51.08 as of that close, or down 1.7% from where we are today.  As you will see below, we would have allocated around 61% of our monies, so actual loss as of the close this past Friday is about 0.65%.

The S-Fund is trading at $19.9449 and the VXF is at $51.63.  This implies that the ratio between the two is 2.5886.  VXF is telling me that we're in trouble below $50.37, which is $19.46 for the S-Fund, so we've a bit of room above the "trouble zone".  We'll see if this trade works.

I-Fund / EFA

The I-Fund/EAF signal has officially been signalling cash since 11/12 and with the action this past week, has confirmed the move to cash on the weekly chart.  This is incredibly bearish and we'll need some time to get over this hurdle.

This being said, the I-Fund is valued at $18.9231 and EFA at $55.47, suggesting a multiple of 2.9313.    For the present moment EFA would need to clear $58.82, or an I-Fund value of $20.07.  This is quite a bit above where it is right now, and while possible, I don't see it in the near future.

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Performance and Allocation

To date, over the last 30 days, we have the following performance:

• SPY:  +0.34%
• VXF:  +4.46%
• EFA:  - 2.91%

Correspondingly, allocations for funding are as follows:

• SPY -- in cash and will stay in cash, but allocation is 31%
• VXF:  61%
• EFA:  -- in cash and will stay in cash, but allocation is 8%

I am not sure that the VXF entry won't be a sucker's rally but I learned to trust the signals long ago.

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Trading Plan for Monday, November 29th.

Because I have placed 2 intra-fund transfers this month, I cannot transfer this money until after 12:00 on Tuesday, November 30th.  I have placed an order at www.tsp.gov for a contribution allocation to reflect new additions at 61% of the S-Fund / VXF, and leave the remaining 39% in the G-Fund (think money market). Follow me at your own peril.

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions, and I am not.  Please take ownership for your actions and do your diligence before you blindly follow anybody.

Regards,

pgd