GGT TSP Signal Change

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Effective with the close on Thursday, 3/25/10, I am moving all funds to the G-Fund. Here's the rationale why:

 

AGG / F-Fund

 

I am listing this fund simply because of continuity. Per my previous blog, I have avoided AGG / F-Fund on this latest leg, because it has not been a solid performer.

1. This ETF has closed below it's 50d MA, although it did bounce off it's 200 MA today
2. The 2d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA is now BELOW the primary slope EMAs (8d, 13d, 21d). This is bearish.
3. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA has crossed the 13d EMA from above, a bearish indicator.
4. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA and the 13d on the same are now both trending downward. This is bearish, and if the 21d also points down, nail the coffin shut.

EFA / I-Fund 

1. The 2d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA is now BELOW the primary slope EMAs (8d, 13d, 21d). This is bearish.
2. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA has crossed the 13d EMA from above, a bearish indicator.
3. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA and the 13d on the same are now both trending downward. This is bearish.

SPY / C-Fund

 

The C-Fund, as measured by the ETF SPY, is a day early relative to the others:

1. The 2d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA is now BELOW the primary slope EMAs (8d, & 13d) but is still above the 21d. A down day on Friday 3/26 in the S&P 500 will certainly trigger this south. Correspondingly, although perhaps a day early, I am coloring this bearish.
2. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA is crossing the 13d EMA from above, a bearish indicator. The difference between the two indicators is $0.0004, so this crossing from above is almost a done deal if tomorrow even thinks of hesitating.

 VXF / S-Fund 

1. The 2d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA is now BELOW the primary slope EMAs (8d, 13d, 21d). This is bearish.
2. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA has crossed the 13d EMA from above, a bearish indicator.
3. The 8d EMA on the slope of the 65d EMA and the 13d on the same are now both trending downward. This is bearish.

I plan to enter my order tonight.  If you enter your order before 9 a.m. Friday morning it should post by the end of the day.

 

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Remember, you are responsible for your own trading decisions.  Please do your own diligence.

 

Regards,

 

pgd