Pending Travel and Implications

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All,

I am going to be unavailable to evaluate signals from Thursday, September 20th through Wednesday, October 4th, as I will not have access to the internet for nightly downloads.  This means that I will not be able to notify you if we get a sell signal until after my return.

This obviously leaves a few options for me:

1) Do nothing with my wife's TSP portfolio.

This is probably not a bad approach -- I anticipate that although the road ahead will be rocky between now and The Election, the overall trend is most likely upwards.  My time horizon is still far off before we can tap these monies, so we have lots of time to make up losses if they occur while I'm gone.  This is my preferred approach going into the weekend.

2) Move the TSP portfolio 100% into the G-Fund (cash), and do the same with future contributions.

This is the safest approach, but not necessarily the most prudent.  The issue here is that as the market climbs higher, we'll miss any chance of appreciation since the interest rate on the G-Fund is practically 0%.  The positive with this approach is that there is virtually no chance of losing ground, and the gains since 9/5 (about 4-5%) will be locked in.  I certainly can add back to the account once I return.

3) Move the TSP portfolio holdings to 100% G-Fund, but keep future contributions working.

This isn't a bad approach overall.  This ensures that the gains to date are locked in and if the markets continue higher, any new money will move higher with it.  The downside is that if the markets move higher the amount of gains lost will dwarf anything gained by future contributions (because the base value of the account is considerably higher than the individual contribution).  The upside to this approach is the same as 2) in that gains to date are protected.

4) Move a % to cash and leave the rest to work.

I think that this is the most prudent choice if I don't do 1).  It protects some of the gains to date and limits the losses on the downside.

Please evaluate your personal situation and make your choice as it best suits you.

Regards,

pgd

Reaffirming Long Entry for Sept 5th

With the close of markets on September 4th, my models have indicated that I should move long into the three equity funds (C-Fund, I-Fund, S-Fund).

My allocations are as follows:

C-Fund:  23%
I-Fund:  14%
S-Fund:  63%

If I make the exchange prior to noon on 9/5 the transaction will complete with the end-of-day prices on 9/5.

I have already made the transfer request.

As with all of my postings, you are responsible for conducting your own diligence.  Please take personal ownership for your investment actions.

Regards,

pgd