Whipsaw Signal -- Moving Back to G-Fund

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With the close of markets on Friday, July 13th, the TSP models are signaling a move to G-Fund.  This is a short-term whipsaw and is due to the failed breakout of the C-, S-, and I-Funds from the previous signal.  Volatility is on the rise, but prices are not, and this divergence has historically not been favorable over the long term.

Effective immediately, I am transitioning back to 100% G-Fund and due to the 2x / month change rule, will be here for the remainder of the month.  If today is not too bad in terms of close we may exit this trade near -0.6% for C-Fund, +1.2% for S-Fund, and -1.5% for I-Fund.

Cash (G-Fund) is king.

Regards,

Paul

Unconfirmed Signal Change Effective 7/6/12

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With the close of markets on 7/5/12, we have an unconfirmed signal change for the Thrift Savings Plan allocations.  "Unconfirmed" means that the long-term timer is not yet confirming this move, but short-term and intermediate-term timers have now indicated we should be back in the market.

Correspondingly, holding 50% in cash could be prudent, as we could fail this signal.  Summer is typically not a strong period to initiate new long-term trends, so I am not overly optimistic.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine though, and I am compelled to follow my rules.

Aggressive:
C-Fund:  32%
I-Fund:  30%
S-Fund:  38%
G-Fund:  0%
F-Fund:  0%

Conservative:

C-Fund:  16%
I-Fund:  15%
S-Fund:  19%
G-Fund:  49%
F-Fund:  1%

If you make the change before 12:00 EDT the funds will be transferred this evening.

Again, remember that this is not a recommendation to buy/hold/sell.  This model is presented for your education and consideration.  You are responsible for your own actions.  Please do your own diligence in making any decisions.

Regards,

pgd