Moving to Cash on October 8, 2013

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All,

Effective with the close of markets on Monday, October 8th, my master timer is indicating that we should move to cash.  I am moving 100% to the G-Fund, effective on Tuesday October 8th.

I will not know what this latest signal resulted in with respect to gains but they are modest at best.  As of tonight, since the entry signal on September 11th (enter next business day), the account is up as follows:

C-Fund:  +1.4%
S-Fund:  +1.4%
I-Fund:  +4.3%

Every little bit helps.

Due to the rolling nature of the 12-month reporting statistics at the TSP.GOV site, performance ended down about -0.5% for the month:

The differences in gain versus the drop in reported account value are partially because we've been weathering the storm overall fairly well, but as I said, I won't know the final values until close of business tomorrow.  If we have another down day on Tuesday we may break even for the series of trades, or even worse (but obviously, not THAT much worse).

Not every trade always works out to our benefit -- the key here is to live to fight another day.

Regards,

Paul

Signal change effective Wednesday, September 11

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Effective with the close of markets on 9/11/13, my TSP timing system has confirmed a move long.  I have entered the order with www.tsp.gov to move from 100% G-Fund (cash) to the following aggressive allocations:

Aggressive:

C-Fund:  18%
I-Fund:  49%
S-Fund:  33%

For those of you who would like to be less aggressive, a more conservative allocation is as follows:

Conservative:


C-Fund:  23%
F-Fund:  8%
I-Fund:  38%
S-Fund:  31%

Because my order is entered before noon ET, it will take place with the closing prices of 9/12/13.

To date the system has returned the following:

Key here is that the system gets you out of a trade relatively quickly, limiting the downside.  I took a few months off this past year so my actual blended performance is lower:

Note that this was with virtually no drawdown.

September is classically a terrible month so we'll see if this signal holds.

Regards,

Paul

Effective 5/29 - Moving to 100% G Fund

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Effective with the close of markets on 5/29, my timer system has indicated that I should move to cash.

Orders placed before noon today (5/30) will be effective tonight at the close.

New allocation:  100% G-Fund.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

Paul

Sell in May and Go Away? Not Now: New Long Signal

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As much as we all like to believe the rhyme "Sell in May and go away" we're not seeing those indications right now.  Of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine and it is quite possible that the rest of the month will be poor, but we must follow the signals as they are generated.

With the close of markets on Friday, May 3rd, my timer system is indicating that we should move long into equities with respect to the TSP.  Here are the allocations:

F-Fund:  +4%
C-Fund:  + 28%
I-Fund: +41%
S-Fund: +27%

The Aggressive Portfolio is coming up with some incredibly wild allocations -- I'm NOT going with this but I'll post it for your consideration:

C-Fund:  20%
I-Fund:  63%
S-Fund:  17%

The heavy allocation in I-Fund is due to a number of internal weights, and right now, the international market is firing on all cylinders.  Too much weighting in one group for me, but it *is* a diversified group and it may continue to do well going forward.

For those of you keeping score, here is the scorecard through Friday:

As always, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Whipsaw -- Models move to Cash effective 4/15/13 close

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I'm on travel so I will be brief.

With the close of markets on Monday, 4/15/13, my GGT/TSP model has reversed and is indicating a move to cash.  This means a transition to the G-Fund.

If you are aggressive, a 16% allocation in the F-Fund, which is a bond fund, could be prudent.

If you are conservative, 100% allocated in the G-Fund would be the safest.

I am putting 16% in the F-Fund and 84% into the G-Fund, effective with the close of markets today (transfer made before noon EDT).

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Going Long on 4/11

I'm on travel so this will be brief.

My model moved long for the TSP funds.  I am going long today with the following allocations:

F-Fund:  16%
C-Fund:   39%
I-Fund:  23%
S-Fund:  22%

Changes made before noon EDT will be effective with the close.

Remember, you are responsible for your own decisions, and I am not.  Please do your diligence and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

April 2 Close Confirms Move to 100% G-Fund

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With the close of markets on Tuesday, April 2nd, my models have confirmed a move to cash.  For the TSP folks, this means a 100% shift to the G-Fund.

I am already in cash, having done so prior to my departure on vacation on March 22nd.  Little was lost between March 22 and April 2nd close, with the C-Fund increasing +0.9%, the S-Fund decreasing -0.5%, and the I-Fund decreasing -0.4%.  It is entirely possible that we could whipsaw from here and move long, especially with the new earnings season starting, but my crystal ball is as good as yours so I'm sitting in cash.

Changes made to your account prior to 12 pm ET will be effective today.  Futures are mixed as I write this, shortly before the open of markets, so it is anybody's guess at what will occur today.

I will post the statistics of the latest signal later this week.  Going into the open on 4/3, without the close information for today (changes today will post tonight), here are our statistics using this system:

Use of 1x ETFs (SPY = C-Fund, EFA = I-Fund, and VXF = S-Fund), has produced the following results, again with next-day implementation of trades (e.g., use the price of the close the FOLLOWING day, not the closing prices of the day of the signal):

Note that the columns are shifted for EFA/I-Fund and VXF/S-Fund -- it's a pain in the rear for me move these around on my spreadsheet because they are linked in a relative sense to other fields throughout my timer calculations.  Note too that I am not using AGG as the proxy for the F-Fund -- I do not commit monies to AGG for my equity accounts.

Key things to compare are the Compounded Rate of Return,  Average Winning Trades, Average Losing Trades, and the ME/PRR values.  All are comparable, as you would expect.

The lesson here is that you can use the SPY, EFA, and VXF successfully to mirror the performance of your TSP funds.  If you are pleased with your TSP, this gives you another avenue with your non-TSP monies.

Regards,

pgd