Allocation Shift for Monday, March 9th

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A number of my indicators are suggesting that lightening exposure to the markets, even if you're a long-term investor, could be a prudent move.

Of course, your crystal ball is as good as mine.

The selloff on Friday was deep, and it caused a number of my internal indicators to move quickly downward, triggering sell signals.  I expect a bounce (aka "dead cat bounce") because the move was so rapid, but I'm not going to wait.

My allocations are 50/50 G-Fund/C-Fund.  I'm protecting some gains, and if we continue to decrease from here, I may move to a 67/33 allocation in the same.

If I make my changes by noon EDT they will be effective with the close of markets on 3/9.

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Of course, do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.  You are responsible for your investment decisions, and I am not.

Regards,

pgd

Whipsaw back to the long side -- back in the market as of 12/22

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With the close of markets on December 19th, my indicators have reversed and are telling me to get back into the market.

Conservative allocations are:

F-Fund	31%
C-Fund	29%
S-Fund	33%
I-Fund	7%

Aggressive allocations are:

C-Fund	42%
I-Fund	11%
S-Fund	47%

The I-fund has been seriously underperforming over the last month, down nearly -3.25%, hence the low allocations here.

Candidly, I have no idea what the future holds -- your crystal ball is as good as mine.  I allocate based on the markets presented, and we had a significant amount of shift last week and thus, indicators have reversed, and done so quite sharply.  We could continue higher, or we could tank.  If we tank I'll know it fairly quickly, so with the "sweep" capabilities of the TSP, moving to cash (G-Fund) will be easy.

My allocations have been set and will be effective with the close of markets on the 21st.

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As always, you are responsible for your own decisions and I am not.  Take ownership for your actions, and please spend time doing your own diligence.

Regards,

pgd

Raising Cash, Friday Dec 12 Close

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With the close of markets on Friday, December 12th, my indicators are showing that I need to raise cash within my TSP account.

New allocations are as follows:

G-Fund:  44%
C-Fund:  26%
S-Fund:  21%
I-Fund:    9%

The I-Fund has been a serious underperformer and I am considering that 9% into cash also; it has fallen -3.72% in the last month.  Note that I do not see anything on the International front that makes me think we've hit the bottom.

I'm always a bit cautious this time of year -- there typically is a Santa Claus rally that starts around now and continues until after the first of the year, and hence, I want to keep some equity in play.

Note that I can take a bit more risk than some of you -- my time line is 11 years before retirement so I have time to make up any short fall.  I tend to be a bit more aggressive than most.

Overall, if equally allocated, here is the performance since September 2008:

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Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Adjusting Allocations - Nov 26 Close

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A late notice here, due mostly to the Thanksgiving weekend and my realization that this coming Monday is the start of the new month.

I have two allocation changes available here at the end of the month, and hence can make a slight tweak to the adjustment of the portfolio.  Here are the proposed allocations:

Conservative
AGG	F-Fund	7%
SPY	C-Fund	40%
EFA	I-Fund	21%
VXF	S-Fund	32%
		100%
Aggressive
SPY	C-Fund	51%
EFA	I-Fund	15%
VXF	S-Fund	34%
		100%

Since the last allocation change we've been relatively flat.  With the previous allocations, the weighted returns for the Conservative approach have been +0.3% and with the Aggressive approach the weighted returns have been +0.326%.   For the aggressive portfolio the weighted C-Fund allocation is up +0.564% and it was hit by a declining S-Fund level of -0.46%.

Note that in a mature market we typically see an underperformance of small cap stocks (S-Fund) and a growth of large cap stocks (C-Fund).

From a long-term perspective, higher allocations in the C-Fund and S-Fund are the better bet.  The table above is calculated using the next-day closing prices after I receive the signal to close a position.  Note that the table does not include allocations, e.g, it presumes 100% in each fund, which obviously is not accurate.  If you were to put 40-30-20-10 in the S-C-I-F funds (respectively) or 34-33-33 in the S-C-I funds (respectively) you would have total returns of 11.0% and 11.2% respectively, over the period September 2008 to present.

Obviously, just guidance, but you get the idea.

Changes made before 12 noon will be effective this month, changes after noon will be effective Monday.  If I missed today's change the present allocations (F/C/I/S = 9-36-9-46, Conservative or C/I/S = 40-10-50, Aggressive) are not bad at all and I could probably stay the course with minimal impact on long-term performance.

Happy Thanksgiving to my U,S. readers.

Regards,

pgd

End of October Allocation Changes, 10-30-2014

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10/31/2014 Morning Update:

I fat-fingered the S-Fund -- the correct value is in bold (51%, I had listed 59%).

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Effective with the last day of the month, I'm moving my allocations to:

C-Fund:  39%
I-Fund:  10%
S-Fund:   51%

These are aggressive values, as nothing is being held in G-Fund.  My time horizon is longer than most (11 years), so I can afford to take a bit more risk.

If you are more conservative, allocations which include holding some back in cash are:

G-Fund:  25%
C-Fund:  29%
I-Fund:  7%
S-Fund:  39%

Equally-blended in the C-, I-, and S-Funds (e.g. 33% each) produced these results since 11/25/08:

For those of you who are following my movements, I use a timing system that is applied to the numbers above.

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I have made the changes in my TSP account.  As long as the changes are posted by 12:00 pm on Friday they will apply for October and will NOT count against the 2x transfers we can use in November.

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As with all my postings, you are responsible for your own investments and I am not.  Please do your diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Reversal Signal - Thurs, Oct 9 Close Update

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I entered the TSP funds with the close of markets today, only to have yesterday's signal reverse.  All indications are "back to cash".

As I indicated yesterday, the initial entry position was 50% cash, 50% equities.  I'm now there.  The reversal indicates that we should transition back to cash, BUT, if I do this, I cannot invest for the rest of the month since we only get two transfers per month.

Correspondingly, because my time frame is long, I'm sitting pat with the allocations established yesterday.  I intend to stay the course.

Of course, your actual mileage may vary.

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Standard disclaimers apply.

Regards,

pgd

New Entry Signal, Wednesday, October 8th Close

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With the close of markets on Wednesday, October 8th, we have a new buy signal for the TSP portfolio.

This is an early signal, and my cash requirements suggest that no more than 50% of the account be placed in equities.

Given this allocations for Thursday, October 9th are:

G-Fund:  50%
C-Fund:  32%
I-Fund:  12%
S-Fund:  6%

This is a conservative allocation, and it is very possible that if this run continues we could see a fully-invested amount quite soon.

This will use one of the two transfers that we have available for the month of October.

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As with all my postings, you must do your own diligence and take ownership for your own trades.  Please accept responsibility for your actions.  I have no responsibility for what YOU do with YOUR money ... this is simply what I'm doing with MY money.

Regards,

pgd